As Game of Thrones season 7 dawns, the Iron Throne is the weakest it has been since the fall of Aerys II Targaryen at the end of Robert’s Rebellion. Queen Cersei, Robert’s widow, has seized the throne following the death of the last of her children, Robert’s recognized heirs. There was no other good claimant, and Cersei had the most power to take it. But it seems incredibly unlikely that she can hold the Iron Throne for any length of time. What are Cersei’s odds? Does she have any shot at all?

Does Cersei Have Any Chance At Holding The Iron Throne?

Queen Cersei’s weaknesses as the paramount sovereign of Westeros are manifold. First, she has no claim to the throne. Second, she has little support among the Great Houses of Westeros. With the Starks, Arryns and Greyjoys in open revolt and the Tyrells and Martells on the edge of forming an alliance against her, only three of the Seven Kingdoms pay nominal heed to Cersei: The stormlands under House Baratheon (currently leaderless); the riverlands under House Frey; and the westerlands of House Lannister. The crownlands around King’s Landing are also at Cersei’s side.

It’s a narrow swath to consolidate a kingdom around. Cersei would have a hard enough time holding onto her throne against such foes even if her allies actually liked her—and even if Daenerys wasn’t coming with fire and blood to bathe the Seven Kingdoms in violence. Instead, most of Cersei’s close allies are dead, killed by Cersei herself at the Great Sept of Baelor. She mistook rivals for enemies and will pay the price for it when her actual enemies come calling.

Cersei’s hold on the Iron Throne rests entirely on force. She controls the Kingsguard, the gold cloaks, the Lannister armies and the family’s wealth. That’s how she was able to take the throne and it’s the only thing that will help her keep it. She will rule as a tyrant. This can work well enough… but only if you’re the strongest power in the land.

Cersei is not going to be the strongest power in Westeros for much longer. The armies of the North will likely be busy consolidating the region and preparing for the Night King, but the Reach and Dorne want to destroy Cersei and her power. Daenerys is also on her way and wants that Iron Throne. Even without dragons and Dothraki, the khaleesi’s army is nothing to sneeze at. With the most powerful fighting force in the world under her command, and with dragons in the sky overhead, Daenerys’s force is far more powerful than any in Westeros. Cersei has zero chance to win by force of arms.

That said, Cersei is sneaky and a schemer, and that may buy her some time—especially if Euron Greyjoy steals a dragon and becomes a serious threat to Daenerys. But otherwise, Cersei is a sitting duck. It’s hard to see a way she can even survive, let alone defeat her enemies.