Face it, folks: Winds of Winter isn’t coming out in 2016. It’s too late. That’s regrettable, especially to George R. R. Martin himself. But it’s not too late for the next book to come out before the Game of Thrones season 7 premiere date, which is unusually late next year. The next season comes out in mid-2017. That means Winds of Winter could still come out before the next season as long as George R. R. Martin finishes it by early spring. Is it possible? Sure, why not. He’s actually still almost on schedule.

Winds Of Winter Release Date: The First Half Of 2017 Is Still Doable

When George R. R. Martin blew his October 2015 deadline, his publishers made him a deal: If he delivered the book by the end of December 2015, they could still get it out into the world before the Game of Thrones season 6 premiere in mid-April. Of course, that didn’t end up happening, but that gives us a sense of the window in which the book needs to be finished.

In the best case, Winds of Winter can be published approximately four months after it’s finished. If Game of Thrones season 7 starts its sadly short seven episode run in June or July, GRRM would have to finish writing—really finish, and submit the darn thing—to his publishers by February or March. That gives him four or five more months from now.

Is that achievable, or a reasonable Winds of Winter release date? Well, that’s not really the kind of question anyone besides GRRM can answer. Only he knows the book’s true progress. Was he almost done a year ago and did he barely miss his deadline? Or was he nowhere close? That’s not for us to answer. But it’s still very possible for Winds of Winter to come out before the next season—it’s just not up to us for whether that will happen.