Is George R.R. Martin Finished Writing Or Is Vanity Fair Full Of Shit?

Vanity Fair has a new post titled “ Game of Thrones: Has George R.R. Martin Secretly Already Finished the Books?” It argues that maybe A Song of Ice and Fire author George R.R. Martin has finished the next sequel to Game of Thrones, The Winds of Winter. But not only has he completed that tome, Vanity Fair suggests, but maybe also its sequel, the final book in the ASOIAF series, A Dream of Spring.

“The evidence is starting to stack up,” the Vanity Fair subhead reads, but it would be charitable to call their evidence convincing. As with most headlines ending with a question mark, the answer here is “No.” In his latest blog post (posted shortly after the Vanity Fair post), Martin wrote, “I probably won’t be writing episodes of ANY television shows until Winds of Winter is done and delivered.”

It’s hard to imagine Martin, who keeps in constant contact with fans, lying so consistently and keeping such a tremendous secret. Everything we know about Martin suggests that the ongoing writing process is tormenting him almost as much as the fans. Earlier this year, he wrote:

“Not done yet, but I’ve made progress. But not as much as I hoped a year ago, when I thought to be done by now. I think it will be out this year. (But hey, I thought the same thing last year).”

The Vanity Fair post implicitly calls him a liar, engaged in a cover-up of sorts. It’s the literary equivalent of conspiracy theorizing. Unless the evidence is very good. Is it?

The argument — the evidence starting to stack up — amounts to a few data points.

“There were some hopeful rumblings among Game of Thrones fans” at the Con of Thrones fan convention. There’s nothing here, certainly nothing we can verify. The claim links to a Twitter account that has a few Game of Thrones memes, including one joking that The Winds of Winter will never come out.

Liam Cunningham, who plays Davos Seaworth, said “There’s going to be a launch and something special happening this year for the premiere,” back in FUCKING FEBRUARY. This claim is such obvious chaff that Vanity Fair sheepishly offers the actual explanation:

“Is he talking about an announcement of a new book to coincide with the Season 7 debut? Maybe. But then again, he could have been talking about HBO making all of us literally watch ice melt in order to find out the new season’s premiere date.”

Why would Liam Cunningham, of all people, know about the surprise worldwide rollout of The Winds of Winter? And how have he and the rest of the cast kept this tremendous secret all of these months?

George R.R. Martin might moderate the Game of Thrones panel at San Diego Comic-Con this year. So?

GRRM listed his mood as “Pleased” in a blog post that begins “I’ve been working so much of late that I have fallen way behind in my reading (sob) and my filmgoing.” This is the core of Vanity Fair’s claim that Martin may have secretly finished The Winds of Winter and A Dream of Spring. It’s based solely on this tweet:

And the tweet’s author doesn’t seem to believe it’s really evidence for anything at all. In a Twitter conversation the author of the Vanity Fair post describes the crux of the claim to BryndenBFish as a #toxicfeedbackloopofhope, rather than proof of anything. Rather than evidence of a bombshell publishing surprise, we are instead left with two people’s mutual enthusiasm, inflated to wishful thinking.

Even this flimsy piece of evidence at the heart of the rumor vortex is premised on nothing. A quick look at his blog confirms that Martin has been “pleased” over a dozen times this year. He’s also been “satisfied,” “bouncy,” “busy,” “productive,” “excited,” “creative” and “chipper,” all without winking at a completed The Winds of Winter.

Martin, who has long been critical of online journalism (partially because he doesn’t understand the aggregation model, for which journalists themselves bear no blame), can have the last word: “Hey, can people stop making shit up?”