The biggest battle in Game of Thrones thus far is now just a few hours away. The Battle of Winterfell, the Battle of the Bastards, is about to begin. And the stakes couldn’t be higher. Jon Snow and Sansa Stark hope to reclaim their lost home, the seat of their ancient house, but that’s not really what matters. In the long run, their victory or defeat determines whether the North will be united as one against the threat of the White Walkers, in which few yet believe. But there are personal stakes too: Ramsay Bolton holds Rickon Stark in Winterfell. And that’s quite a bargaining chip.

Can Rickon Stark Possibly Survive The Battle For Winterfell?

Rickon Stark is in a sticky situation. Ramsay Bolton can use Rickon as leverage in the upcoming siege; in fact, he’s the best leverage of all. As long as Ramsay has Rickon, Jon and Sansa can’t actually win the battle. Ramsay can threaten to kill Rickon at any moment. He won’t do it early on, because that destroys his leverage, and once Rickon is dead, Jon and Sansa have no incentive not to push their siege to the utmost. They have nothing further to lose. But as long as Rickon’s alive, he’s the ultimate bargaining chip. Ramsay certainly wouldn’t mind killing him when it suits his needs.

So what’s a baby Stark to do? If Shaggydog were still alive, this would all be easy: Rickon’s direwolf would eventually tear out Ramsay’s throat somehow. But as far as we know, Shaggydog is dead (unless the Umbers are playing a long game somehow). Rickon is essentially helpless on his own.

Can the wildlings sneak in and rescue Rickon Stark? Let’s hope so, because it’s really the Stark’s only chance for success in their siege. Winterfell has many secret passages; Jon and Sansa know some of them and will be happy to tell Tormund Giantsbane about them in exchange for his help in a covert mission. If wildlings sneak in and sneak Rickon out, the whole tenor of the siege changes. It becomes winnable. But even that’s a tall order and Ramsay’s no fool.

Let’s face it: The Starks face steep odds in retaking Winterfell, the most powerful castle in the North. They have a piddling army and no time for a proper siege. Their enemy holds their own brother hostage. The odds are stacked against them. And this is Game of Thrones. We shouldn’t assume things will end up going their way just because the Starks are the “good guys.” I think we’re well past that. When the Battle for Winterfell ends, who’s to say that Ramsay Bolton won’t emerge victorious—or that he’ll kill Rickon with his own hands before he’s defeated?