King Tommen Baratheon’s days are numbered. That, at least, is what prophecy tells us. His position is more vulnerable than it ever has been since the end of the War of the Five Kings, and his hold on the throne is sure to become even more tenuous in Game of Thrones season 6 and in Winds of Winter. The question isn’t whether Tommen will fall, but when—and how.
The Fall Of King Tommen, First Of His Name
Long ago, Maggy the Frog prophesied to Cersei Lannister that the one-day queen would see all her children buried. So far, only a third of that prophecy is true: Joffrey, her firstborn, has been laid to rest, to nobody’s grief but Cersei’s. Myrcella is very much in harm’s way down in Dorne, and if the show is any guide, her days are quite numbered as well. She will most likely die in Dorne, somehow, leaving only Tommen remaining.
At the end of A Dance With Dragons, the Lannisters are at their lowest point. Tywin is dead and his influence gone. Kevan and Tyrion, his intellectual heirs, are respectively dead and long fled. Cersei is in disgrace, but will still be the one running things… and that’s another problem, because she can barely manage it as is. With a trial looming and the hatred of the kingdom growing, her power will wane further. That leaves Tommen in the hands of the Tyrells, who are… probably better stewards for the kingdom, if you think about it.
But a Tyrell-controlled Tommen will be Tommen’s downfall. The Martells hate the Tyrells so much that a Tyrell puppet monarchy will be totally unacceptable. Hell, Arianne is working on killing Myrcella for much more nebulous reasons. As soon as the Tyrell influence eclipses the Lannister influence, the Martells will be ready to take action—especially if and when they declare for Aegon Targaryen or even Daenerys. And you know Arianne, at least, will play dirty. And Doran, slow to anger, will strike hard when the time is right.
It seems likely the Martells and Aegon Targaryen will be the death of King Tommen Baratheon, First of His Name. Whether in a second siege of King’s Landing or by subterfuge, his days are numbered, and the Lannisters are in serious trouble when he dies. If Myrcella still lives, which she won’t, she’ll become queen. If not… the next heir is… wait for it… Stannis Baratheon. If he’s dead and Shireen’s dead, then it’s total chaos, but Aegon and Daenerys would be the strongest claimants, providing a very large incentive for Tommen to die. So… expect to see it happen. He’s a good kid and would be a good king, but he won’t make it to adulthood.
