So Myrcella Baratheon died in the Game of Thrones season 5 finale, and that hasn’t happened in the books. But I don’t think this is one of the show’s many changes, except in the particulars: I do think Myrcella will die in Winds of Winter. It is preordained. The question is… how will it happen? And will Arianne Martell—or the Sand Snakes—be responsible?

Myrcella Will Die In Dorne, But How?

In a sense, Cersei was right to be paranoid about Myrcella being in Dorne. While she is happy there and is not a captive or hostage in any meaningful way, she’s still in the Martell’s clutches, and a lot of them hate the Lannisters with a fierce passion. Only Doran’s grace keeps her alive, and as we saw with Arianne’s barely-failed plot to crown her as Queen of the Seven Kingdoms, even that is not always enough. In the books, Myrcella is down one ear and up one big facial scar. In the show, she’s dead, for similar reasons but at the hands of Ellaria Sand and the Sand Snakes.

Her death is soon to follow in Winds of Winter. As was foretold by Maggy the Frog, all of Cersei’s children will die before her. Joffrey is already long gone, of course, and Tommen is vulnerable. Myrcella’s death in the show simply skips a few steps, disgracefully ignoring the Arianne plot and jumping straight to the end-game of Myrcella’s death. The circumstances will differ in the book, but the end result will be the same.

Now that Arianne Martell is finally in on Prince Doran’s plans, Myrcella may be safe from the heir to Dorne. But the Sand Snakes are just as vengeful as ever. Remember, Arianne never wanted to kill Myrcella in the first place—Darkstar did. The Sand Snakes, however, aren’t so well-intentioned. That may be the irony of the Game of Thrones season 5 finale. The show cut Arianne, one of the strongest female characters in Game of Thrones, and instead amped up the Sand Snakes, who… aren’t the best. But it could well end up being the Sand Snakes who kill Myrcella in Winds of Winter.

Whoever it is, there will be trouble. And by trouble, I mean war—a war the Lannisters can ill afford to fight.