Stannis is not in a good spot at the end of A Dance With Dragons, and he’s in a much, much worse spot at the end of Game of Thrones season 5. In the show, his story may or may not be over. His path to the Iron Throne now seems nearly impossible, his quest nearly at an end. Truth is, it’s no such thing—as long as he wins the Battle for Winterfell, it’s actually not at all unlikely that he will have a shot at the Iron Throne. But not because of any great victories. I’ll explain.

Stannis’s Route To The Iron Throne Is Easy: Wait

Stannis has an advantage that no other claimant in the War of the Five Kings had: an actually strong claim. Remember why he rebelled in the first place? He believed—correctly—that all of Cersei’s children, Robert’s recognized heirs, were in fact bastards. That made him the legitimate heir to the throne of Westeros, no if’s and’s or but’s. Of course, the Lannisters weren’t too keen on that, with the result being the War of the Five Kings and the Battle of the Blackwater.

Despite his defeats, Stannis’s claim remains incredibly strong. And it’s not a matter of convincing the people of Westeros that Tommen and Myrcella are bastards. That doesn’t matter—he won’t be able to get them out of the way as long as the Lannisters hold King’s Landing. No, his shot at the Iron Throne is more direct.

Maggy the Frog prophesized that gold would be the crowns of Cersei’s children, and gold their burial shrouds. Joffrey is already dead. Myrcella is alive, but died in the television show and may not be long for this world. Tommen is very vulnerable. Fate and prophecy says both will die before Cersei… and the Lannister’s increasingly tenuous rule does little to contradict the woods witch’s prophecy.

Who is the heir to House Baratheon after Tommen and Myrcella (even though they are bastards)? None other than Stannis Baratheon, and Shireen after him. If both the Lannister kids die, Stannis is the only surviving lord with a good claim to Westeros. Well… besides for Aegon and Daenerys. And that’s the trouble.

Stannis stands to inherit the Iron Throne by birthright. If he wins Winterfell and camps there through part of the winter, as is his plan, the Throne should be his by right before spring. But much will happen in the winter. The Tyrells and surviving Lannisters wouldn’t just hand over the place, but they wouldn’t even be the real problem. No, that will be Aegon and Daenerys. They aren’t about to let the Usurper’s brother usurp what they’re already trying to de-usurp. Never. And they’ll force Stannis to die fighting—or to bend the knee.