It has been a truism ever since A Dance With Dragons came out that Jon Snow is not really dead. At the end of Dance, the Night’s Watch turns against him for being a bad Lord Commander, and they put him down. But, since Jon is so important—the bastard son of Rhaegar Targaryen and Lyanna Stark, a probable dragonrider, possibly even the Prince That Was Promised—the fandom of A Song of Ice and Fire has always assumed his death was temporary—a red herring. That Jon Snow would warg into Ghost and be brought back to life by Melisandre. But, uh, what if that isn’t going to happen? What if he really is dead?

Jon Snow 2.0: The Case Against His Resurrection

The case in favor of Jon Snow’s resurrection is pretty clear. Most people agree that he does, in fact, die at the end of Dance. But in the books—and possibly, but not definitely, in the show—he is a warg. He can send his spirit into his direwolf Ghost, even while his human body perishes. There is ample precedent for this. And then Melisandre, a red witch of R’hllor, could bring him back to life. Thoros of Myr has done this with Beric Dondarrion a few too many times, so there’s precedent for that too. And we know Melisandre’s magic is not just better than Thoros’s, but more powerful at the Wall, a site of ancient magic. She could bring Jon Snow back.

It all holds up. It’s logically consistent given what we know about the story. But that doesn’t actually mean it will happen. And Jon Snow’s death in the Game of Thrones season 5 finale brings about some additional complications. Here’s the big one: Kit Harington, who plays Jon Snow, says he's really and truly gone. The producers have said he’s really dead, but that’s different—that which is dead can never die, but rises again, harder and stronger. But he is who cut out of the cast can’t come back. Harington says he isn’t coming back, and his appearance in contract for cast salaries in season 6 and 7 was “inaccurate in many ways,” as he told EW. Executive producers Benioff and Weiss sat him down and told him “’Look, you’re gone, it’s done.’” He’s cut his hair, and he’s looking at movie roles. Maybe he really is gone.

What does that mean for the books, though? Jon’s secret heritage still has to be paid off. Another dragonrider must be found, another head of the dragon. We have to hope he’s not the Prince That Was Promised. Or else all of Westeros will fall under endless night.

Or, y’know, maybe Melisandre will just bring him back in a different body. Or Harington is keeping secrets, or being kept in the dark himself. We won’t know until Winds of Winter or Game of Thrones season 6, but for the first time in years, I feel doubt about Jon Snow.