Generally speaking, nobody wants to think about when or how they die. For the few morbid and curious souls, there is a website that can reportedly predict how you will die using data from the Underlying Cause of Death database from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention ( CDC ).
Flowing Data, created by Nathan Yau, a statistician at UCLA used information sourced from death certificates from 1999 to 2014 to create a graphic that makes cause of death predictions based on factors like gender, race and age. The information varies based on age, so the user can see the unique risk factors at different stages of their life.
“Enter your sex, race, and age,” writes Yau on his website. “Each dot represents one of your simulated lives, and as each year passes, more of your simulated selves pass away. Color corresponds to cause of death, and the bars on the right keep track of the cumulative percentages. By the end, you're left with the chances that you will die of each cause.”
There are some limitations to the website. For example, the race selection has four demographics -- White, Asian, Black, and Native -- that do not account for distinctions within these broad racial groups (e.g. South Asian vs. Pacific Islander) and excludes other identities (like the Hispanic community).
That said, it does provide some general information about mortality.
“The main point, which is what you'd expect, is that mortality rate is much lower in the earlier years of life than in the older years,” wrote Yau. “But, if you do die at a younger age, it's much more likely due to something external rather than a disease.”
He adds: “You can also look at it the other way. Shift age to the older years, and let the simulations run. You're much more likely to die of a disease rather than something external. Shift past 80 years, and it's over 40 percent chance the cause will be circulatory, regardless of demographic group.”
