Super Mario Run releases on iOS in December, and it’s sparking major public interest. In a recent chat with BuzzFeed Japan, Apple CEO Tim Cook revealed notification stats that truly put the Wii U’s sales struggle in perspective.
As those that head to the Super Mario Run App Store page will note, there’s a section for users to click to be notified when the game is released to the public. Translated by trusted industry consultant Dr. Serkan Toto, Cook mused that 20 million prospective iOS players have already taken advantage of that promotion.
Tim Cook to BuzzFeed Japan: Super Mario Run already boasts 20 million iOS users who chose to get notifications when the game is out in Dec.
— Dr. Serkan Toto (@serkantoto) October 14, 2016
Toto doesn't make comparisons of the app’s projected sales to the Wii U, but we’ll do that for you. At last report back in February, Nintendo announced that its struggling console had just managed to ship 12 million units globally.
That number has probably grown a bit by now, but, considering Super Mario Run isn’t out yet, that’s still a pretty clear illustration of just how potentially pervasive the mobile market can be to the right developer. Breaking things down even further, the most popular Wii U title, Mario Kart 8, has only sold around 8 million copies on a single system. That accounts for a 66 percent attach rate, which is almost unheard of for a console game, and it’s still less than half of Mario’s predicted interest on a single mobile platform.
There are plenty of caveats to using availability notifications as an indicator of total sales, but even those get balanced out. For example, it’s true that not all of the 20 million notified will actually buy Super Mario Run, but there are also assumingly plenty of early adopters that aren’t enrolled to be informed. The 20-million stat also doesn’t take into account that Super Mario Run will release on Android next year. The single Wii U to iOS comparison is more accurate overall, but adding in a second storefront makes the existing gap even wider.
Then there’s the mystery of Super Mario Run’s pricing that could curb all of its current momentum. If the game’s single-pay fee is deemed to be too high, many consumers may decline to purchase it altogether. Without the full, final details from Nintendo, the implied doubling sales projection should be taken with a grain of salt for now. That being said, Super Mario Run appears well on its way to being in roughly the same exclusive class as Pokémon Go.
Super Mario Run comes to iOS in December and Android in 2017.
What do you think of Super Mario Run’s release notification stats on iOS? Do they magnify the Wii U’s failures? Tell us in the comments section.
