Xenoblade Chronicles X is coming to Wii U on December 4 this year, and it’s looking pretty cool. It just has one problem: Nobody’s actually going to buy it. It’s got great graphics, a cool sounding story, an interesting setting, and general hugeness, but it just ain’t going to sell… even though it’s one of the flagship holiday launches for the system.

Why Xenoblade Chronicles X Won’t Sell

JRPGs can be awesome, and people get pretty excited about them. I mean, look at the Final Fantasy VII remake. People are losing their brains over that. And some people are losing their brains over Xenoblade Chronicles X too. But… not as many. No, not nearly as many.

There’s a reason Nintendo wasn’t going to release the original Xenoblade Chronicles on Wii in the United States. JRPGs, besides for Final Fantasy, appeal to a niche market—and I’d even argue that most Final Fantasy games have returned to that niche nowadays too. Sure, Xenoblade Chronicles Wii ended up doing well and being in very high demand, in part because it was so long denied to us. But that doesn’t make the sequel a flagship triple-A title in the United States (Japan is another matter). It will certainly have its fans, and many people will buy it. But it’s not the kind of game that attracts full-on mainstream attention.

If you think I’m wrong about Xenoblade Chronicles X, bear in mind that the demographic that loves JRPGs is very vocal—one of the oldest and most loyal sections of the gaming demographic. They’re the ones who go on message boards and forums and on YouTube and Twitch to tell you of their love. They aren’t the millions of people who buy Yoshi games and give them to their kids. It’s a different world.

So yea, Xenoblade Chronicles X is going to be sweet, even if it will be inaccessible, confusing, and wildly time-consuming. It is a JRPG, after all. But it isn’t going to be a success in North America. It’ll do fine. But it’s not a tentpole, and it isn’t going to sell more than a handful of Wii U consoles. Sorry.